When our brains don't have a good intuition for reasoning with numbers, explicit probabilistic thinking can lead to improved decision-making. A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out ...

There are 36 cards labeled with the numbers 1 through 36 and then placed face down on a table. If four cards are revealed one after the other, what is the probability that each card’s number is larger ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...

Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that the other child is a boy? Jones has two children. The older one is a girl. What is the probability that the other ...

However, Talwalkar explains that this is incorrect. The real probability is actually slightly less than 50 percent. He breaks down the math as follows: There is a 12 out of 24 chance that the first ...